Allais Paradox
Choose between the following two alternatives:
- 1. 90% chance of an unknown amount
and a 10% chance of $1 million, or - 2. 89% chance of the same unknown amount , 10% chance of $2.5 million, and 1% chance of nothing.
or 
.However, the best choice depends on the unknown amount, even though it is the same in both cases! This appears to violate theIndependence Axiom.See also Independence Axiom, Monty Hall Problem, Newcomb's Paradox
References
Allais, M. ``Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école américaine.'' Econometrica 21, 503-546, 1953.
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